Positive Outlook for RenaissanceRe Holdings Reflects Potential Upgrade
S&P Global Ratings has adjusted its outlook for RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. (RenRe) and its subsidiaries from stable to positive. This change signals the possibility of a one-notch upgrade within the next 12 to 24 months, contingent upon the Bermuda-based reinsurer sustaining its excellent capital status and achieving positive financial outcomes.
S&P has also affirmed its ‘A-‘ issuer credit ratings for RenRe and its intermediate holding company, DaVinciRe Holdings Ltd. Additionally, the ‘A+’ issuer credit and financial strength ratings on all core operating subsidiaries have been maintained.
The ratings agency has noted RenRe’s improved and more diversified earnings over the past two years. These improvements are largely attributed to the acquisition of Validus, despite the challenges posed by elevated catastrophe losses.
Since early 2023, RenRe has capitalized on structural shifts within the reinsurance sector. These include higher attachment points, enhanced terms and conditions, and a robust property catastrophe reinsurance market. RenRe has strategically opted out of renewing certain business lines that did not align with its profitability targets.
S&P emphasized that RenRe’s competitive advantage remains rooted in its leading position in the property-catastrophe reinsurance market. It is also recognized as a top-tier third-party capital manager, with a growing presence in casualty and specialty lines.
Potential for Upgrade and Risks for Downgrade
S&P outlined conditions for a potential ratings upgrade for RenRe within the next 12-24 months. These include sustaining enhanced earnings diversity, supported by underwriting profits from both property and casualty and specialty segments, leveraging favorable reinsurance pricing. Additionally, RenRe is expected to maintain strong consolidated operating performance comparable to ‘AA-‘ peers, alongside excellent capitalisation, with redundancy at the 99.99% confidence level.
On the other hand, the outlook could revert to stable or lead to a downgrade if RenRe’s underwriting performance lacks earnings diversity, or if its combined ratio underperforms compared to ‘AA-‘ peers or exceeds 100% for two consecutive years. Furthermore, a drop in the company’s capital adequacy below the 99.99% confidence level due to significant underwriting or investment losses could trigger a rating downgrade, especially if RenRe is unable to restore its capitalisation to the 99.99% threshold within 12-24 months.
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