JPMorgan’s Optimism for EMEA Gold Mining Sector

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JPMorgan’s Positive Outlook on Gold Miners

Investing.com reports that JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) has reiterated its optimistic stance towards the gold mining sector in the Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) region. The financial giant anticipates a substantial 60-90% growth potential if gold prices ascend to $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026.

While EMEA miners have already seen a 20-50% rise this year, JPMorgan believes there is further room for growth. This potential is bolstered by escalating investor and central bank demand, combined with inflationary pressures and geopolitical instabilities.

JPMorgan strategists, led by Patrick Jones, remarked, “At JPM Commodity Research’s projected 2026 gold price of approximately $4,100/oz, we are 40-60% bullish on EMEA Gold Miners compared to the consensus 2026 EBITDA estimates. In this scenario, there’s a 60-90% upside potential at current share prices.”

Top Picks and Valuations

Fresnillo (LON:FRES) stands out as JPMorgan’s preferred choice in the sector. The bank has raised its price target for the stock from £10 to £14.50, considering it attractively valued. The company trades at about 4.5-5x spot EV/EBITDA and offers a free cash flow (FCF) yield of approximately 10%.

In a favorable gold price scenario, JPMorgan estimates a value of £18.50 per share, indicating around 90% upside potential. The strategists added, “With no projects in the pipeline for this year, the near-term production profile is, in our view, lower risk.”

Moreover, the bank maintains its Overweight recommendation on Hochschild and AngloGold Ashanti due to their attractive valuations and revaluation potential. “We believe management has a credible plan to rectify the issues at Mara Rosa,” the strategists mentioned, highlighting the long-term growth prospects from other projects.

Gold Price Forecasts and Market Dynamics

JPMorgan expects AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU) to benefit from its US stock exchange listing and its lack of exposure to South Africa, enhancing its comparability with global peers.

The bank’s revised gold price forecast of $3,295/oz in 2025 and $3,596/oz in 2026 reflects recent futures curve movements, which support updated earnings forecasts for all covered entities. The macroeconomic environment, characterized by stagflation risks, recession concerns, and global policy uncertainties, continues to underpin robust corporate and retail gold demand.

According to JPMorgan, gold remains one of the most effective hedges against “stagflation, recession, currency depreciation, and US policy risks” in 2025 and 2026. The strategists further noted, “The increasing likelihood of a US recession and the potential for the Fed to hasten rate cuts in response further amplifies this positive narrative.”