Dollar’s Trajectory Hinges on Upcoming US Payroll Data

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Chris Turner, an analyst at ING, has highlighted the vulnerability of the U.S. dollar, suggesting it could face further declines if the forthcoming non-farm payrolls data significantly underperforms expectations. Turner emphasized, “Data will be the main driver of the dollar this week,” indicating that markets are keenly awaiting signs of whether the recent decline in consumer and business confidence is translating into job cuts.

In related commentary, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Christopher Waller has indicated the potential for the Fed to reduce interest rates more swiftly and substantially if unemployment rates rise notably. However, Waller noted that such a decision might be deferred until later in the summer, pending President Trump’s decision on the reimplementation of reciprocal tariffs.

Turner concluded by stating, “The direction of the dollar will depend on whether US data is weak enough to merit a further increase in rate cut expectations,” underscoring the pivotal role of economic indicators in shaping monetary policy and currency valuations.