Democratic Party’s Resurgence in Special Elections

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A Surprising Turnaround for Democrats

A message in Madison, Wis., before a significant Supreme Court race.
Credit…Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York Times

It may seem like the Democratic Party has a long road ahead to regain its electoral prowess. The party’s agenda appears to be running on fumes, its supporters are becoming disenchanted, and its leaders have been seen as lacking robust opposition to President Trump. However, the results from tonight’s elections — and those on many upcoming Tuesday nights — might just provide a counter-narrative to the party’s perceived troubles.

Encouraging Trends in Special Elections

Since the inauguration of Mr. Trump, Democrats have been performing strongly in special elections. On average, they have surpassed Kamala Harris’s previous performance by 12 percentage points across 11 special elections, as per data compiled by The Downballot. Notably, they have succeeded in flipping two traditionally Republican districts in Iowa and Pennsylvania.

Looking Ahead: Upcoming Races

This pattern of Democratic gains seems poised to persist today, as voters in Florida’s First and Sixth Districts cast their ballots to replace Matt Gaetz and the embattled national security adviser, Michael Waltz. While Democrats are not anticipated to win these seats, the Sixth District, where Mr. Trump secured a 30-point lead last November, shows signs of being a competitive race. Additionally, Democrats have even greater cause for optimism in the scheduled Supreme Court election in Wisconsin.

Understanding the Democratic Advantage

If you’ve followed the trends, the Democratic success in special and off-year elections might not come as a shock. Throughout the Trump administration, Democrats have thrived in elections characterized by lower voter turnout, as the party seems to resonate most strongly with highly engaged, habitual voters. This advantage is partially due to the party’s stronghold among college-educated individuals, yet it goes beyond simple demographics.