Commerzbank Revises USD/TRY Forecast Amid Political Turmoil

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Commerzbank Adjusts USD/TRY Projections

In light of recent political developments in Turkey, Commerzbank has revised its forecasts for the USD/TRY exchange rate for both the end of this year and the next. According to Commerzbank analyst Tatha Ghose, the Turkish Lira is projected to weaken substantially if the political unrest continues in the aftermath of the detention of Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.

The analyst emphasized that prolonged political uncertainty could strain international relations, stating, “In such a scenario, daily intervention to manage the lira will become increasingly expensive, and the currency will likely depreciate further, exacerbating inflationary pressures.”

Reflecting these concerns, Commerzbank has adjusted its previous forecasts for the dollar against the lira. The new projections suggest the USD/TRY exchange rate could reach 42.0 by the end of 2025 and 46.0 by the end of 2026, up from the earlier estimates of 38.0 and 40.0 respectively.